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Paul Gonzalez v Dennis Igelbrink (Fri 02 Nov 2018)

Match won by Paul Gonzalez. Result: 9-11,11-5,11-5,11-9.

Starting level for Paul Gonzalez: 5,219, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for Dennis Igelbrink: 4,779, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Paul Gonzalez to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Dennis Igelbrink.

Paul Gonzalez won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 40% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Gonzalez played 30% better than Dennis Igelbrink in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Gonzalez actually played at a level of 5,693 and Dennis Igelbrink at a level of 4,381. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.1% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Gonzalez changes to +8.7% and Dennis Igelbrink changes to -6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Gonzalez becomes +3.3% and for Dennis Igelbrink becomes -2.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Belgian Junior Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Gonzalez: 73%, Dennis Igelbrink: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Gonzalez: 66%, Dennis Igelbrink: 79%.

A final adjustment of +0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Gonzalez: 5,407, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Dennis Igelbrink: 4,695, level confidence: 79%.