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Pablo Richet v Elias Coyle (Fri 02 Nov 2018)

Match won by Pablo Richet. Result: 13-11,10-12,12-10,11-5.

Starting level for Pablo Richet: 4,021, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for Elias Coyle: 3,058, level confidence: 92%. Set manually.
Pablo Richet to win as he is currently playing 31% better than Elias Coyle.

Pablo Richet won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Pablo Richet played 24% better than Elias Coyle in this match.

As Pablo Richet has played below his allowed range at 3,806, his level reduction is 0.6% before damping. On the assumption that Pablo Richet would normally have been playing at level 3,924 (based on typical behaviour), Elias Coyle played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.5% and 1.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Pablo Richet changes to -0.5% and Elias Coyle changes to +0.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Pablo Richet becomes -0.3% and for Elias Coyle becomes +0.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Belgian Junior Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Pablo Richet: 73%, Elias Coyle: 96%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Pablo Richet: 71%, Elias Coyle: 93%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Pablo Richet: 4,018, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Elias Coyle: 3,085, level confidence: 93%.