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Peter Billson v Joshua Taylor (Tue 04 Dec 2018)

Match won by Peter Billson. Result: 11-5,12-10,11-9.

Starting level for Peter Billson: 16,755, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Joshua Taylor: 12,894, level confidence: 68%.
Peter Billson to win as he is currently playing 30% better than Joshua Taylor.

Peter Billson won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 42% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Billson played 46% better than Joshua Taylor in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Peter Billson actually played at a level of 17,764 and Joshua Taylor at a level of 12,162. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.3% and 5.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Billson changes to +4.7% and Joshua Taylor changes to -5.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Billson becomes +1.7% and for Joshua Taylor becomes -2%.

Given Peter Billson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 33% has been applied to his level change.

Given Joshua Taylor's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 25% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Peter Billson is +1% and for Joshua Taylor is -1.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Billson: 87%, Joshua Taylor: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Billson: 82%, Joshua Taylor: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Billson: 16,892, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Joshua Taylor: 12,726, level confidence: 78%.