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Daryl Selby v Henrik Mustonen (Wed 05 Dec 2018)

Match won by Daryl Selby. Result: 12-10,1-11,11-9,12-10.

Starting level for Daryl Selby: 41,785, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Henrik Mustonen: 26,199, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Daryl Selby to win as he is currently playing 59% better than Henrik Mustonen.

Daryl Selby won 75% of the games and 47% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 11% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daryl Selby played 13% better than Henrik Mustonen in this match.

As Daryl Selby has played below his allowed range at 32,818, his level reduction is 10.4% before damping. On the assumption that Daryl Selby would normally have been playing at level 39,221 (based on typical behaviour), Henrik Mustonen played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 15%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.2% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daryl Selby changes to -8.2% and Henrik Mustonen changes to +11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daryl Selby becomes -2.1% and for Henrik Mustonen becomes +2.8%.

Given Daryl Selby's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 70% has been applied to his level change.

Given Henrik Mustonen's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 50% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Daryl Selby is -0.9% and for Henrik Mustonen is +1.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daryl Selby: 85%, Henrik Mustonen: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daryl Selby: 71%, Henrik Mustonen: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Daryl Selby: 41,344, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Henrik Mustonen: 26,527, level confidence: 73%.