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Joel Makin v Richie Fallows (Sun 02 Dec 2018)

Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 11-1,11-5,11-5.

Starting level for Joel Makin: 51,218, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for Richie Fallows: 30,491, level confidence: 59%.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing 68% better than Richie Fallows.

Joel Makin won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played 200% better than Richie Fallows in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joel Makin actually played at a level of 68,448 and Richie Fallows at a level of 22,816. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 34% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 25% and 25% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to +25% and Richie Fallows changes to -22%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes +4.8% and for Richie Fallows becomes -4.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Kent Canterbury Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 73%, Richie Fallows: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 54%, Richie Fallows: 57%.

A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joel Makin: 53,155, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Richie Fallows: 29,898, level confidence: 57%.