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Joel Makin v Anthony Rogal (Sat 01 Dec 2018)

Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 11-1,11-2,11-1.

Starting level for Joel Makin: 49,043, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Anthony Rogal: 13,727, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing 257% better than Anthony Rogal.

Joel Makin won all of the games and 89% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 725% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played 725% better than Anthony Rogal in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joel Makin actually played at a level of 74,525 and Anthony Rogal at a level of 9,033. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 52% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 25% and 25% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to +25% and Anthony Rogal changes to -21%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes +4.8% and for Anthony Rogal becomes -5.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Kent Canterbury Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 81%, Anthony Rogal: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 53%, Anthony Rogal: 57%.

A final adjustment of +1.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joel Makin: 51,490, level confidence: 53%.
Final level for Anthony Rogal: 13,411, level confidence: 57%.