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Joel Makin v Perry Malik (Sat 01 Dec 2018)

Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 11-4,11-6,11-5.

Starting level for Joel Makin: 48,395, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Perry Malik: 11,405, level confidence: 61%.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing 324% better than Perry Malik.

Joel Makin won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played 120% better than Perry Malik in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Joel Makin was taking it easy by anything up to 36%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 19,526 and 48,395 without affecting his level.

In this case, Joel Makin played at level 27,772 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Joel Makin would normally have been playing at level 30,740 (based on typical behaviour), Perry Malik played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 5.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to 0% and Perry Malik changes to +5.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes 0% and for Perry Malik becomes +1.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Kent Canterbury Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 90%, Perry Malik: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 65%, Perry Malik: 56%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joel Makin: 48,463, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Perry Malik: 11,642, level confidence: 56%.