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Karim El Hammamy v Edmon Lopez Moller (Thu 29 Nov 2018)

Match won by Karim El Hammamy. Result: 10-12,11-7,11-6,11-4.

Starting level for Karim El Hammamy: 25,350, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Edmon Lopez Moller: 29,433, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Edmon Lopez Moller to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Karim El Hammamy.

Karim El Hammamy won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Karim El Hammamy played 33% better than Edmon Lopez Moller in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Karim El Hammamy actually played at a level of 31,464 and Edmon Lopez Moller at a level of 23,714. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 24% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Karim El Hammamy changes to +22% and Edmon Lopez Moller changes to -22%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Karim El Hammamy becomes +4.9% and for Edmon Lopez Moller becomes -4.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Pakistan Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Karim El Hammamy: 89%, Edmon Lopez Moller: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Karim El Hammamy: 72%, Edmon Lopez Moller: 72%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Karim El Hammamy: 26,516, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Edmon Lopez Moller: 28,213, level confidence: 72%.