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Joshua Masters v Ahmed Hosny (Wed 28 Nov 2018)

Match won by Joshua Masters. Result: 11-8,11-4,11-7.

Starting level for Joshua Masters: 33,399, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ahmed Hosny: 21,422, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Joshua Masters to win as he is currently playing 56% better than Ahmed Hosny.

Joshua Masters won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joshua Masters played 74% better than Ahmed Hosny in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joshua Masters actually played at a level of 35,251 and Ahmed Hosny at a level of 20,296. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.5% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.4% and 4.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joshua Masters changes to +4.2% and Ahmed Hosny changes to -4.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joshua Masters becomes +1.4% and for Ahmed Hosny becomes -1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Pakistan Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joshua Masters: 88%, Ahmed Hosny: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joshua Masters: 83%, Ahmed Hosny: 81%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joshua Masters: 33,605, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Ahmed Hosny: 21,305, level confidence: 81%.