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Mostafa Asal v Ammar Altamimi (Wed 28 Nov 2018)

Match won by Mostafa Asal. Result: 11-5,11-9,11-13,11-4.

Starting level for Mostafa Asal: 30,032, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Ammar Altamimi: 21,900, level confidence: 68%.
Mostafa Asal to win as he is currently playing 37% better than Ammar Altamimi.

Mostafa Asal won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 42% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mostafa Asal played 31% better than Ammar Altamimi in this match.

In this case, Mostafa Asal played at level 28,844 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Mostafa Asal would normally have been playing at level 29,091 (based on typical behaviour), Ammar Altamimi played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal changes to 0% and Ammar Altamimi changes to +0.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal becomes 0% and for Ammar Altamimi becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Pakistan Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mostafa Asal: 77%, Ammar Altamimi: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mostafa Asal: 75%, Ammar Altamimi: 81%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mostafa Asal: 29,960, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Ammar Altamimi: 22,104, level confidence: 81%.