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Seigo Masuda v Youssef Mahmoud (Fri 30 Nov 2018)

Match won by Youssef Mahmoud. Result: 5-11,5-11,5-11.

Starting level for Seigo Masuda: 10,002, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Youssef Mahmoud: 27,010, level confidence: 17%.
Youssef Mahmoud to win as he is currently playing 170% better than Seigo Masuda.

Youssef Mahmoud won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Youssef Mahmoud played 120% better than Seigo Masuda in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Youssef Mahmoud was taking it easy by anything up to 21%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 15,997 and 27,010 without affecting his level.

In this case, Youssef Mahmoud played at level 22,004 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Seigo Masuda is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Youssef Mahmoud: 41%, Seigo Masuda: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Youssef Mahmoud: 37%, Seigo Masuda: 79%.

Final level for Seigo Masuda: 10,002, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Youssef Mahmoud: 27,010, level confidence: 37%.