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Andrew Peers v Michael McLaughlin (Wed 28 Nov 2018)

Match won by Michael McLaughlin. Result: 3-11,1-11,3-11.

Starting level for Andrew Peers: 4,157, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Michael McLaughlin: 8,185, level confidence: 89%. Set manually.
Michael McLaughlin to win as he is currently playing 97% better than Andrew Peers.

Michael McLaughlin won all of the games and 83% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 371% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael McLaughlin played 371% better than Andrew Peers in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Michael McLaughlin actually played at a level of 12,665 and Andrew Peers at a level of 2,687. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 55% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 36% and 36% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael McLaughlin changes to +28% and Andrew Peers changes to -36%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael McLaughlin becomes +7.5% and for Andrew Peers becomes -11%.

Given Michael McLaughlin's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Buckinghamshire League' so the adjustment for Michael McLaughlin is +5% and for Andrew Peers is -8.1%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Andrew Peers is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael McLaughlin: 95%, Andrew Peers: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael McLaughlin: 61%, Andrew Peers: 53%.

A final adjustment of +0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Andrew Peers: 4,008, level confidence: 53%.
Final level for Michael McLaughlin: 8,617, level confidence: 61%.