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Marcus Hayes v James Robinson (Mon 26 Nov 2018)

Match won by Marcus Hayes. Result: 11-4,11-2,11-5.

Starting level for Marcus Hayes: 8,068, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for James Robinson: 5,427, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Marcus Hayes to win as he is currently playing 49% better than James Robinson.

Marcus Hayes won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Marcus Hayes played 200% better than James Robinson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Marcus Hayes actually played at a level of 11,461 and James Robinson at a level of 3,820. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 42% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 33% and 33% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Marcus Hayes changes to +33% and James Robinson changes to -31%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Marcus Hayes becomes +8.7% and for James Robinson becomes -9.2%.

Given Marcus Hayes's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 11% has been applied to his level change.

Given James Robinson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.8% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Marcus Hayes is +5.8% and for James Robinson is -6.6%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that James Robinson is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Marcus Hayes: 88%, James Robinson: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Marcus Hayes: 62%, James Robinson: 63%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Marcus Hayes: 8,559, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for James Robinson: 5,180, level confidence: 63%.