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Mohamed Elshorbagy v Ali Farag (Sun 25 Nov 2018)

Match won by Mohamed Elshorbagy. Result: 11-6,11-7,11-7.

Starting level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 67,198, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ali Farag: 69,961, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Ali Farag to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Mohamed Elshorbagy.

Mohamed Elshorbagy won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elshorbagy played 65% better than Ali Farag in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohamed Elshorbagy actually played at a level of 88,074 and Ali Farag at a level of 53,378. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 31% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy changes to +30% and Ali Farag changes to -30%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy becomes +5.3% and for Ali Farag becomes -5.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Hong Kong Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Mohamed Elshorbagy is limited to +4.5% and Ali Farag is limited to -4.5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 87%, Ali Farag: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 66%, Ali Farag: 66%.

A final adjustment of +1.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 70,263, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Ali Farag: 68,394, level confidence: 66%.