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Mohamed Elshorbagy v Tarek Momen (Sat 24 Nov 2018)

Match won by Mohamed Elshorbagy. Result: 11-9,11-5,11-6.

Starting level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 65,445, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tarek Momen: 57,887, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Mohamed Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing 13% better than Tarek Momen.

Mohamed Elshorbagy won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elshorbagy played 65% better than Tarek Momen in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohamed Elshorbagy actually played at a level of 79,063 and Tarek Momen at a level of 47,917. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy changes to +19% and Tarek Momen changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy becomes +3.8% and for Tarek Momen becomes -3.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Hong Kong Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 92%, Tarek Momen: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 76%, Tarek Momen: 77%.

A final adjustment of +0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 67,549, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Tarek Momen: 56,744, level confidence: 77%.