Sarah-Jane Perry v Nour El Sherbini (Fri 23 Nov 2018)
Match won by Sarah-Jane Perry. Result: 7-11,11-7,11-13,11-8,11-5.
Starting level for
Sarah-Jane Perry:
10,605, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Nour El Sherbini:
12,845, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Nour El Sherbini to win as she is currently playing
21% better than Sarah-Jane Perry.
Sarah-Jane Perry won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Sarah-Jane Perry played
11% better than Nour El Sherbini in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Sarah-Jane Perry actually played at a level of
12,323 and Nour El Sherbini at a level of
11,054. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sarah-Jane Perry changes to +13% and Nour El Sherbini changes to -15%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sarah-Jane Perry becomes +3.9% and for Nour El Sherbini becomes -4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Hong Kong Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sarah-Jane Perry: 93%, Nour El Sherbini: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sarah-Jane Perry: 80%, Nour El Sherbini: 76%.
A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Sarah-Jane Perry:
10,945, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Nour El Sherbini:
12,339, level confidence: 76%.