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Ali Farag v Karim Abdel Gawad (Fri 23 Nov 2018)

Match won by Ali Farag. Result: 7-11,12-10,11-7,12-10.

Starting level for Ali Farag: 68,889, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Starting level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 49,541, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Ali Farag to win as he is currently playing 39% better than Karim Abdel Gawad.

Ali Farag won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ali Farag played 20% better than Karim Abdel Gawad in this match.

As Ali Farag has played below his allowed range at 61,891, his level reduction is 3.9% before damping. On the assumption that Ali Farag would normally have been playing at level 66,562 (based on typical behaviour), Karim Abdel Gawad played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.3% and 4.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ali Farag changes to -3.2% and Karim Abdel Gawad changes to +4.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ali Farag becomes -1.1% and for Karim Abdel Gawad becomes +1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Hong Kong Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ali Farag: 94%, Karim Abdel Gawad: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ali Farag: 87%, Karim Abdel Gawad: 86%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ali Farag: 68,004, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 50,328, level confidence: 86%.