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Simon Rösner v Miguel Rodriguez (Fri 23 Nov 2018)

Match won by Simon Rösner. Result: 11-8,4-11,11-6,7-11,18-16.

Starting level for Simon Rösner: 62,445, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Miguel Rodriguez: 48,567, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Simon Rösner to win as he is currently playing 29% better than Miguel Rodriguez.

Simon Rösner won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Simon Rösner played 7% better than Miguel Rodriguez in this match.

As Simon Rösner has played below his allowed range at 55,797, his level reduction is 7.4% before damping. On the assumption that Simon Rösner would normally have been playing at level 61,158 (based on typical behaviour), Miguel Rodriguez played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.5% and 7.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Simon Rösner changes to -6.5% and Miguel Rodriguez changes to +6.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Simon Rösner becomes -1.7% and for Miguel Rodriguez becomes +1.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Hong Kong Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Simon Rösner: 83%, Miguel Rodriguez: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Simon Rösner: 76%, Miguel Rodriguez: 80%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Simon Rösner: 61,396, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Miguel Rodriguez: 49,476, level confidence: 80%.