Youssef Soliman v Mohamed Reda (Thu 22 Nov 2018)
Match won by Youssef Soliman. Result: 8-11,15-13,11-3,7-11,11-2.
Starting level for
Youssef Soliman:
32,669, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for
Mohamed Reda:
28,613, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Youssef Soliman to win as he is currently playing
14% better than Mohamed Reda.
Youssef Soliman won 60% of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Youssef Soliman played
15% better than Mohamed Reda in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Youssef Soliman actually played at a level of
32,787 and Mohamed Reda at a level of
28,510. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.4% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman changes to +0.3% and Mohamed Reda changes to 0%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman becomes +0.1% and for Mohamed Reda becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Dha Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Youssef Soliman: 81%, Mohamed Reda: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Youssef Soliman: 80%, Mohamed Reda: 87%.
A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Youssef Soliman:
32,608, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Mohamed Reda:
28,669, level confidence: 87%.