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Ali Farag v Diego Elias (Thu 22 Nov 2018)

Match won by Ali Farag. Result: 11-4,11-6,10-12,11-8.

Starting level for Ali Farag: 68,544, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Diego Elias: 49,896, level confidence: 47%.
Ali Farag to win as he is currently playing 37% better than Diego Elias.

Ali Farag won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ali Farag played 31% better than Diego Elias in this match.

In this case, Ali Farag played at level 65,881 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Ali Farag would normally have been playing at level 66,376 (based on typical behaviour), Diego Elias played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ali Farag changes to 0% and Diego Elias changes to +0.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ali Farag becomes 0% and for Diego Elias becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Hong Kong Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ali Farag: 91%, Diego Elias: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ali Farag: 89%, Diego Elias: 67%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ali Farag: 68,482, level confidence: 89%.
Final level for Diego Elias: 50,326, level confidence: 67%.