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Miguel Rodriguez v Zahed Mohamed (Thu 22 Nov 2018)

Match won by Miguel Rodriguez. Result: 11-7,11-7,11-7.

Starting level for Miguel Rodriguez: 47,289, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Zahed Mohamed: 40,498, level confidence: 89%. Set manually.
Miguel Rodriguez to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Zahed Mohamed.

Miguel Rodriguez won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Miguel Rodriguez played 56% better than Zahed Mohamed in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Miguel Rodriguez actually played at a level of 54,735 and Zahed Mohamed at a level of 34,989. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Miguel Rodriguez changes to +14% and Zahed Mohamed changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Miguel Rodriguez becomes +3.1% and for Zahed Mohamed becomes -3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Hong Kong Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Miguel Rodriguez: 89%, Zahed Mohamed: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Miguel Rodriguez: 77%, Zahed Mohamed: 81%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Miguel Rodriguez: 48,543, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Zahed Mohamed: 39,534, level confidence: 81%.