SquashLevels calculations
Mohamed Elshorbagy v Tom Richards (Thu 22 Nov 2018)
Match won by Mohamed Elshorbagy. Result: 11-6,11-7,12-10.
Starting level for
Mohamed Elshorbagy:
64,493, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for
Tom Richards:
42,744, level confidence: 66%.
Mohamed Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing
51% better than Tom Richards.
Mohamed Elshorbagy won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elshorbagy played
50% better than Tom Richards in this match.
In this case, Mohamed Elshorbagy played at level 64,199 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Tom Richards is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 78%, Tom Richards: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 78%, Tom Richards: 81%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Mohamed Elshorbagy:
64,501, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Tom Richards:
42,790, level confidence: 81%.