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Ali Farag v Gregoire Marche (Wed 21 Nov 2018)

Match won by Ali Farag. Result: 11-9,11-8,11-4.

Starting level for Ali Farag: 68,606, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Gregoire Marche: 42,676, level confidence: 57%.
Ali Farag to win as he is currently playing 61% better than Gregoire Marche.

Ali Farag won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ali Farag played 56% better than Gregoire Marche in this match.

In this case, Ali Farag played at level 66,761 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Gregoire Marche is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ali Farag: 84%, Gregoire Marche: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ali Farag: 83%, Gregoire Marche: 75%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ali Farag: 68,653, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Gregoire Marche: 42,835, level confidence: 75%.