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Karim Abdel Gawad v Lucas Serme (Wed 21 Nov 2018)

Match won by Karim Abdel Gawad. Result: 11-8,11-7,14-12.

Starting level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 48,649, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Lucas Serme: 36,565, level confidence: 68%.
Karim Abdel Gawad to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Lucas Serme.

Karim Abdel Gawad won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 33% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Karim Abdel Gawad played 40% better than Lucas Serme in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Karim Abdel Gawad actually played at a level of 49,990 and Lucas Serme at a level of 35,584. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.8% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.4% and 2.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Karim Abdel Gawad changes to +2% and Lucas Serme changes to -2.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Karim Abdel Gawad becomes +0.7% and for Lucas Serme becomes -0.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Hong Kong Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Karim Abdel Gawad: 91%, Lucas Serme: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Karim Abdel Gawad: 88%, Lucas Serme: 80%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 48,726, level confidence: 88%.
Final level for Lucas Serme: 36,510, level confidence: 80%.