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Miguel Rodriguez v Max Lee (Wed 21 Nov 2018)

Match won by Miguel Rodriguez. Result: 6-11,13-11,6-11,16-14,11-8.

Starting level for Miguel Rodriguez: 48,167, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Max Lee: 40,740, level confidence: 68%.
Miguel Rodriguez to win as he is currently playing 18% better than Max Lee.

Miguel Rodriguez won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 6% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Miguel Rodriguez played 6% better than Max Lee in this match.

As Miguel Rodriguez has played below his allowed range at 45,261, his level reduction is 4.7% before damping. On the assumption that Miguel Rodriguez would normally have been playing at level 47,770 (based on typical behaviour), Max Lee played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.1%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Miguel Rodriguez changes to -4.1% and Max Lee changes to +4.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Miguel Rodriguez becomes -1.3% and for Max Lee becomes +1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Hong Kong Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Miguel Rodriguez: 85%, Max Lee: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Miguel Rodriguez: 80%, Max Lee: 78%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Miguel Rodriguez: 47,558, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Max Lee: 41,404, level confidence: 78%.