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Raphael Kandra v Cesar Salazar (Wed 21 Nov 2018)

Match won by Raphael Kandra. Result: 11-8,11-6,8-11,11-9.

Starting level for Raphael Kandra: 39,354, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Cesar Salazar: 41,225, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Cesar Salazar to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Raphael Kandra.

Raphael Kandra won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raphael Kandra played 24% better than Cesar Salazar in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Raphael Kandra actually played at a level of 44,770 and Cesar Salazar at a level of 36,238. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra changes to +13% and Cesar Salazar changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra becomes +3% and for Cesar Salazar becomes -2.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Hong Kong Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raphael Kandra: 81%, Cesar Salazar: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raphael Kandra: 71%, Cesar Salazar: 77%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Raphael Kandra: 40,480, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Cesar Salazar: 40,280, level confidence: 77%.