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Mohamed Elshorbagy v Ryan Cuskelly (Wed 21 Nov 2018)

Match won by Mohamed Elshorbagy. Result: 11-3,11-6,11-5.

Starting level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 62,049, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Ryan Cuskelly: 49,600, level confidence: 53%.
Mohamed Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing 25% better than Ryan Cuskelly.

Mohamed Elshorbagy won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elshorbagy played 136% better than Ryan Cuskelly in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohamed Elshorbagy actually played at a level of 85,173 and Ryan Cuskelly at a level of 36,134. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 37% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 33% and 33% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy changes to +25% and Ryan Cuskelly changes to -33%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy becomes +4.6% and for Ryan Cuskelly becomes -6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Hong Kong Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Ryan Cuskelly is limited to -4.9% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 84%, Ryan Cuskelly: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 61%, Ryan Cuskelly: 53%.

A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 64,493, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Ryan Cuskelly: 48,442, level confidence: 53%.