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Youssef Soliman v Naveed Rehman (Tue 20 Nov 2018)

Match won by Youssef Soliman. Result: 11-7,11-4,11-5.

Starting level for Youssef Soliman: 33,595, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Starting level for Naveed Rehman: 5,625, level confidence: 26%.
Youssef Soliman to win as he is currently playing 497% better than Naveed Rehman.

Youssef Soliman won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Youssef Soliman played 106% better than Naveed Rehman in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Youssef Soliman was taking it easy by anything up to 47%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 9,375 and 33,595 without affecting his level.

In this case, Youssef Soliman played at level 14,349 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Youssef Soliman would normally have been playing at level 17,747 (based on typical behaviour), Naveed Rehman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 24%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 9.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman changes to 0% and Naveed Rehman changes to +9.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman becomes 0% and for Naveed Rehman becomes +3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Dha Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Youssef Soliman: 93%, Naveed Rehman: 51%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Youssef Soliman: 55%, Naveed Rehman: 30%.

Final level for Youssef Soliman: 33,595, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Naveed Rehman: 5,815, level confidence: 30%.