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Gregoire Marche v Arturo Salazar (Tue 20 Nov 2018)

Match won by Gregoire Marche. Result: 13-11,11-4,11-6.

Starting level for Gregoire Marche: 41,202, level confidence: 51%.
Starting level for Arturo Salazar: 38,247, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Gregoire Marche to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Arturo Salazar.

Gregoire Marche won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gregoire Marche played 67% better than Arturo Salazar in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Gregoire Marche actually played at a level of 51,249 and Arturo Salazar at a level of 30,749. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 24% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gregoire Marche changes to +23% and Arturo Salazar changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gregoire Marche becomes +4.7% and for Arturo Salazar becomes -3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Hong Kong Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gregoire Marche: 71%, Arturo Salazar: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gregoire Marche: 57%, Arturo Salazar: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gregoire Marche: 42,901, level confidence: 57%.
Final level for Arturo Salazar: 37,203, level confidence: 70%.