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George Parker v Campbell Grayson (Tue 20 Nov 2018)

Match won by George Parker. Result: 11-4,11-4,11-8.

Starting level for George Parker: 37,100, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Campbell Grayson: 32,061, level confidence: 70%.
George Parker to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Campbell Grayson.

George Parker won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that George Parker played 106% better than Campbell Grayson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like George Parker actually played at a level of 49,530 and Campbell Grayson at a level of 24,015. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 34% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for George Parker changes to +28% and Campbell Grayson changes to -31%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for George Parker becomes +5.6% and for Campbell Grayson becomes -6.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Hong Kong Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. George Parker: 87%, Campbell Grayson: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. George Parker: 65%, Campbell Grayson: 63%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for George Parker: 38,883, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Campbell Grayson: 30,489, level confidence: 63%.