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Alex Phillips v Daryl Selby (Wed 21 Nov 2018)

Match won by Daryl Selby. Result: 5-11,4-11,5-11.

Starting level for Alex Phillips: 11,088, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Daryl Selby: 42,093, level confidence: 59%.
Daryl Selby to win as he is currently playing 280% better than Alex Phillips.

Daryl Selby won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daryl Selby played 136% better than Alex Phillips in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Daryl Selby was taking it easy by anything up to 33%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 17,375 and 42,093 without affecting his level.

In this case, Daryl Selby played at level 27,248 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Daryl Selby would normally have been playing at level 28,406 (based on typical behaviour), Alex Phillips played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daryl Selby changes to 0% and Alex Phillips changes to +2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daryl Selby becomes 0% and for Alex Phillips becomes +1%.

Given Alex Phillips's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 20% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Daryl Selby is 0% and for Alex Phillips is +0.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daryl Selby: 77%, Alex Phillips: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daryl Selby: 61%, Alex Phillips: 63%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alex Phillips: 11,140, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Daryl Selby: 42,038, level confidence: 61%.