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Michael McLaughlin v Alex Preston (Wed 21 Nov 2018)

Match won by Michael McLaughlin. Result: 11-7,11-8,12-14,11-8.

Starting level for Michael McLaughlin: 8,088, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Starting level for Alex Preston: 7,433, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Michael McLaughlin to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Alex Preston.

Michael McLaughlin won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael McLaughlin played 24% better than Alex Preston in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Michael McLaughlin actually played at a level of 8,630 and Alex Preston at a level of 6,966. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael McLaughlin changes to +6.4% and Alex Preston changes to -6.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael McLaughlin becomes +2.4% and for Alex Preston becomes -2.5%.

Given Michael McLaughlin's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 11% has been applied to his level change.

Given Alex Preston's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.3% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Buckinghamshire League' so the adjustment for Michael McLaughlin is +1.6% and for Alex Preston is -1.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael McLaughlin: 93%, Alex Preston: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael McLaughlin: 87%, Alex Preston: 87%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Michael McLaughlin: 8,241, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Alex Preston: 7,327, level confidence: 87%.