Dan Busby v Marcus Hayes (Mon 19 Nov 2018)
Match won by Dan Busby. Result: 7-11,11-6,11-7,11-8.
Starting level for
Dan Busby:
7,890, level confidence: 54%.
Starting level for
Marcus Hayes:
8,209, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Marcus Hayes to win as he is currently playing
4% better than Dan Busby.
Dan Busby won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 25% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dan Busby played
25% better than Marcus Hayes in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dan Busby actually played at a level of
8,998 and Marcus Hayes at a level of
7,198. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dan Busby changes to +14% and Marcus Hayes changes to -8.7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dan Busby becomes +4.3% and for Marcus Hayes becomes -3%.
Given Dan Busby's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 10.8% has been applied to his level change.
Given Marcus Hayes's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Dan Busby is +2.9% and for Marcus Hayes is -2%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dan Busby: 74%, Marcus Hayes: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dan Busby: 65%, Marcus Hayes: 79%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Dan Busby:
8,138, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Marcus Hayes:
8,068, level confidence: 79%.