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Tom Bamford v Peter Billson (Tue 20 Nov 2018)

Match won by Peter Billson. Result: 4-11,5-11,4-11.

Starting level for Tom Bamford: 8,649, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Peter Billson: 16,505, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Peter Billson to win as he is currently playing 91% better than Tom Bamford.

Peter Billson won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Billson played 154% better than Tom Bamford in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Peter Billson actually played at a level of 19,036 and Tom Bamford at a level of 7,499. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.9% and 10.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Billson changes to +10.9% and Tom Bamford changes to -10.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Billson becomes +3% and for Tom Bamford becomes -3.4%.

Given Peter Billson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 33% has been applied to his level change.

Given Tom Bamford's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 13% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Peter Billson is +1.7% and for Tom Bamford is -2.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Billson: 88%, Tom Bamford: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Billson: 77%, Tom Bamford: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Bamford: 8,446, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Peter Billson: 16,764, level confidence: 77%.