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Jens Schoor v Joel Makin (Thu 11 Oct 2018)

Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 9-11,9-11,2-11.

Starting level for Jens Schoor: 24,162, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for Joel Makin: 46,743, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing 93% better than Jens Schoor.

Joel Makin won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played 65% better than Jens Schoor in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Joel Makin was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 35,717 and 46,743 without affecting his level.

In this case, Joel Makin played at level 40,663 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Joel Makin would normally have been playing at level 41,475 (based on typical behaviour), Jens Schoor played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to 0% and Jens Schoor changes to +1.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes 0% and for Jens Schoor becomes +0.6%.

Given Jens Schoor's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 46% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Swiss Interclub 2018/19' so the adjustment for Joel Makin is 0% and for Jens Schoor is +0.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 88%, Jens Schoor: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 81%, Jens Schoor: 67%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jens Schoor: 24,297, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Joel Makin: 46,860, level confidence: 81%.