Youssef Soliman v Bernat Jaume (Sun 18 Nov 2018)
Match won by Youssef Soliman. Result: 11-9,8-11,11-8,11-6.
Starting level for
Youssef Soliman:
33,502, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Bernat Jaume:
27,616, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Youssef Soliman to win as he is currently playing
21% better than Bernat Jaume.
Youssef Soliman won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Youssef Soliman played
24% better than Bernat Jaume in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Youssef Soliman actually played at a level of
33,809 and Bernat Jaume at a level of
27,366. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.9% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman changes to +0.8% and Bernat Jaume changes to -0.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman becomes +0.3% and for Bernat Jaume becomes -0.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Romanian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Youssef Soliman: 89%, Bernat Jaume: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Youssef Soliman: 88%, Bernat Jaume: 89%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Youssef Soliman:
33,559, level confidence: 88%.
Final level for Bernat Jaume:
27,663, level confidence: 89%.