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Baptiste Masotti v Sebastian Bonmalais (Sun 18 Nov 2018)

Match won by Baptiste Masotti. Result: 11-6,11-4,11-8.

Starting level for Baptiste Masotti: 33,016, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Sebastian Bonmalais: 25,573, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Baptiste Masotti to win as he is currently playing 29% better than Sebastian Bonmalais.

Baptiste Masotti won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Baptiste Masotti played 83% better than Sebastian Bonmalais in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Baptiste Masotti actually played at a level of 39,344 and Sebastian Bonmalais at a level of 21,460. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Baptiste Masotti changes to +15% and Sebastian Bonmalais changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Baptiste Masotti becomes +3.4% and for Sebastian Bonmalais becomes -3.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Open International Niort Venise Verte' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Baptiste Masotti: 90%, Sebastian Bonmalais: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Baptiste Masotti: 75%, Sebastian Bonmalais: 71%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Baptiste Masotti: 33,963, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Sebastian Bonmalais: 24,824, level confidence: 71%.