Sebastien Bonmalais v Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu (Sat 17 Nov 2018)
Match won by Sebastien Bonmalais. Result: 11-5,11-9,11-7.
Starting level for
Sebastien Bonmalais:
23,986, level confidence: 91%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu:
27,583, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu to win as he is currently playing
15% better than Sebastien Bonmalais.
Sebastien Bonmalais won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Sebastien Bonmalais played
56% better than Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Sebastien Bonmalais actually played at a level of
32,171 and Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu at a level of
20,565. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 34% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sebastien Bonmalais changes to +27% and Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu changes to -31%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sebastien Bonmalais becomes +5.9% and for Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu becomes -6.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Open International Niort Venise Verte' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sebastien Bonmalais: 96%, Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sebastien Bonmalais: 71%, Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu: 67%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Sebastien Bonmalais:
25,318, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu:
26,319, level confidence: 67%.