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Youssef Soliman v Ahmed Hosny (Fri 16 Nov 2018)

Match won by Youssef Soliman. Result: 10-12,11-4,11-8,10-12,11-5.

Starting level for Youssef Soliman: 34,671, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ahmed Hosny: 20,404, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Youssef Soliman to win as he is currently playing 70% better than Ahmed Hosny.

Youssef Soliman won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Youssef Soliman played 15% better than Ahmed Hosny in this match.

As Youssef Soliman has played below his allowed range at 26,322, his level reduction is 12% before damping. On the assumption that Youssef Soliman would normally have been playing at level 32,022 (based on typical behaviour), Ahmed Hosny played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 17%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.4% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman changes to -9.4% and Ahmed Hosny changes to +12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman becomes -2.4% and for Ahmed Hosny becomes +3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Romanian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Youssef Soliman: 87%, Ahmed Hosny: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Youssef Soliman: 72%, Ahmed Hosny: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Youssef Soliman: 33,872, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Ahmed Hosny: 21,103, level confidence: 74%.