Bernat Jaume v Robert Downer (Fri 16 Nov 2018)
Match won by Bernat Jaume. Result: 11-13,11-8,11-3,11-1.
Starting level for
Bernat Jaume:
26,534, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Robert Downer:
19,442, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Bernat Jaume to win as he is currently playing
36% better than Robert Downer.
Bernat Jaume won 75% of the games and 64% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 76% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Bernat Jaume played
42% better than Robert Downer in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Bernat Jaume actually played at a level of
27,049 and Robert Downer at a level of
19,072. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.9% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.7% and 1.7% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Bernat Jaume changes to +1.7% and Robert Downer changes to -1.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Bernat Jaume becomes +0.7% and for Robert Downer becomes -0.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Romanian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Bernat Jaume: 87%, Robert Downer: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Bernat Jaume: 85%, Robert Downer: 86%.
Final level for Bernat Jaume:
26,715, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Robert Downer:
19,306, level confidence: 86%.