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Edmon Lopez Moller v Benjamin Aubert (Fri 16 Nov 2018)

Match won by Edmon Lopez Moller. Result: 11-13,11-3,11-4,11-3.

Starting level for Edmon Lopez Moller: 28,427, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Starting level for Benjamin Aubert: 25,152, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Edmon Lopez Moller to win as he is currently playing 13% better than Benjamin Aubert.

Edmon Lopez Moller won 75% of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 91% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Edmon Lopez Moller played 47% better than Benjamin Aubert in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Edmon Lopez Moller actually played at a level of 32,407 and Benjamin Aubert at a level of 22,063. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Edmon Lopez Moller changes to +10.8% and Benjamin Aubert changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Edmon Lopez Moller becomes +2.7% and for Benjamin Aubert becomes -3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Open International Niort Venise Verte' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Edmon Lopez Moller: 93%, Benjamin Aubert: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Edmon Lopez Moller: 81%, Benjamin Aubert: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Edmon Lopez Moller: 29,130, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Benjamin Aubert: 24,516, level confidence: 74%.