Lucy Beecroft v Julia Le Coq (Thu 15 Nov 2018)
Match won by Lucy Beecroft. Result: 11-4,11-5,11-6.
Starting level for
Lucy Beecroft:
5,522, level confidence: 31%.
Starting level for
Julia Le Coq:
2,849, level confidence: 31%.
Lucy Beecroft to win as she is currently playing
94% better than Julia Le Coq.
Lucy Beecroft won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lucy Beecroft played
120% better than Julia Le Coq in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lucy Beecroft actually played at a level of
5,883 and Julia Le Coq at a level of
2,674. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.5% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.7% and 4.7% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lucy Beecroft changes to +4.7% and Julia Le Coq changes to -4.7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lucy Beecroft becomes +2.2% and for Julia Le Coq becomes -2.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Rhode Island Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lucy Beecroft: 56%, Julia Le Coq: 56%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lucy Beecroft: 52%, Julia Le Coq: 52%.
Final level for Lucy Beecroft:
5,642, level confidence: 52%.
Final level for Julia Le Coq:
2,776, level confidence: 52%.