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Sebastien Bonmalais v Joseph White (Thu 15 Nov 2018)

Match won by Sebastien Bonmalais. Result: 11-6,11-1,11-7.

Starting level for Sebastien Bonmalais: 23,932, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Starting level for Joseph White: 9,179, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Sebastien Bonmalais to win as he is currently playing 161% better than Joseph White.

Sebastien Bonmalais won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Sebastien Bonmalais played 136% better than Joseph White in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Sebastien Bonmalais was taking it easy by anything up to 20%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 15,345 and 23,932 without affecting his level.

In this case, Sebastien Bonmalais played at level 21,636 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Joseph White is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sebastien Bonmalais: 92%, Joseph White: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sebastien Bonmalais: 88%, Joseph White: 80%.

Final level for Sebastien Bonmalais: 23,932, level confidence: 88%.
Final level for Joseph White: 9,179, level confidence: 80%.