Juan Camilo Vargas v Chris Fuller (Wed 14 Nov 2018)
Match won by Juan Camilo Vargas. Result: 11-2,11-7,11-6.
Starting level for
Juan Camilo Vargas:
22,082, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for
Chris Fuller:
17,512, level confidence: 66%.
Juan Camilo Vargas to win as he is currently playing
26% better than Chris Fuller.
Juan Camilo Vargas won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Juan Camilo Vargas played
120% better than Chris Fuller in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Juan Camilo Vargas actually played at a level of
29,167 and Chris Fuller at a level of
13,258. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 28% and 28% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Juan Camilo Vargas changes to +27% and Chris Fuller changes to -28%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Juan Camilo Vargas becomes +5.9% and for Chris Fuller becomes -6.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Simon Warder Memorial Prostate Cancer Tournament' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Chris Fuller is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Juan Camilo Vargas: 83%, Chris Fuller: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Juan Camilo Vargas: 63%, Chris Fuller: 62%.
Final level for Juan Camilo Vargas:
23,395, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Chris Fuller:
16,678, level confidence: 62%.