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Greg Lobban v Raphael Kandra (Mon 12 Nov 2018)

Match won by Greg Lobban. Result: 11-7,11-8,11-7.

Starting level for Greg Lobban: 38,650, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Starting level for Raphael Kandra: 41,087, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Raphael Kandra to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Greg Lobban.

Greg Lobban won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Greg Lobban played 52% better than Raphael Kandra in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Greg Lobban actually played at a level of 49,074 and Raphael Kandra at a level of 32,360. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Greg Lobban changes to +23% and Raphael Kandra changes to -26%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Greg Lobban becomes +4.7% and for Raphael Kandra becomes -5.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Qsf No1' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Greg Lobban: 93%, Raphael Kandra: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Greg Lobban: 73%, Raphael Kandra: 69%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Greg Lobban: 40,298, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Raphael Kandra: 39,297, level confidence: 69%.