Ivan Yuen v Bernat Jaume (Sat 10 Nov 2018)
Match won by Ivan Yuen. Result: 11-7,11-9,11-9.
Starting level for
Ivan Yuen:
32,076, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Bernat Jaume:
26,457, level confidence: 69%.
Ivan Yuen to win as he is currently playing
21% better than Bernat Jaume.
Ivan Yuen won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ivan Yuen played
40% better than Bernat Jaume in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ivan Yuen actually played at a level of
34,418 and Bernat Jaume at a level of
24,657. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.3% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ivan Yuen changes to +6.2% and Bernat Jaume changes to -6.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ivan Yuen becomes +1.8% and for Bernat Jaume becomes -2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Qsf No1' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ivan Yuen: 86%, Bernat Jaume: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ivan Yuen: 80%, Bernat Jaume: 77%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Ivan Yuen:
32,575, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Bernat Jaume:
26,085, level confidence: 77%.