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Michael McLaughlin v Michael Pittams (Mon 12 Nov 2018)

Match won by Michael Pittams. Result: 1-11,8-11,6-11.

Starting level for Michael McLaughlin: 8,074, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Starting level for Michael Pittams: 9,828, level confidence: 54%.
Michael Pittams to win as he is currently playing 22% better than Michael McLaughlin.

Michael Pittams won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael Pittams played 120% better than Michael McLaughlin in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Michael Pittams actually played at a level of 13,213 and Michael McLaughlin at a level of 6,006. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 34% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael Pittams changes to +31% and Michael McLaughlin changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael Pittams becomes +7.8% and for Michael McLaughlin becomes -5.1%.

Given Michael Pittams's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 17% has been applied to his level change.

Given Michael McLaughlin's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 11% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Middlesex Seniors League' so the adjustment for Michael Pittams is +5% and for Michael McLaughlin is -3.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael Pittams: 74%, Michael McLaughlin: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael Pittams: 55%, Michael McLaughlin: 69%.

A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Michael McLaughlin: 7,932, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Michael Pittams: 10,343, level confidence: 55%.