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Marcus Hayes v Ryan Picken (Mon 12 Nov 2018)

Match won by Ryan Picken. Result: 11-5,3-11,7-11,9-11.

Starting level for Marcus Hayes: 8,263, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ryan Picken: 10,741, level confidence: 58%.
Ryan Picken to win as he is currently playing 30% better than Marcus Hayes.

Ryan Picken won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 27% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ryan Picken played 26% better than Marcus Hayes in this match.

In this case, Ryan Picken played at level 10,437 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Ryan Picken would normally have been playing at level 10,501 (based on typical behaviour), Marcus Hayes played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ryan Picken changes to 0% and Marcus Hayes changes to +0.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ryan Picken becomes 0% and for Marcus Hayes becomes 0%.

Given Marcus Hayes's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Ryan Picken is 0% and for Marcus Hayes is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ryan Picken: 76%, Marcus Hayes: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ryan Picken: 75%, Marcus Hayes: 84%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Marcus Hayes: 8,296, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Ryan Picken: 10,768, level confidence: 75%.