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Joel Makin v Miles Jenkins (Mon 12 Nov 2018)

Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 11-4,13-11,11-5.

Starting level for Joel Makin: 50,014, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Miles Jenkins: 20,144, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing 148% better than Miles Jenkins.

Joel Makin won all of the games and 64% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 75% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played 75% better than Miles Jenkins in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Joel Makin was taking it easy by anything up to 18%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 31,617 and 50,014 without affecting his level.

In this case, Joel Makin played at level 37,921 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Joel Makin would normally have been playing at level 40,792 (based on typical behaviour), Miles Jenkins played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to 0% and Miles Jenkins changes to +4.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes 0% and for Miles Jenkins becomes +1.7%.

Given Miles Jenkins's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 39% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Joel Makin is 0% and for Miles Jenkins is +0.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 90%, Miles Jenkins: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 76%, Miles Jenkins: 73%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joel Makin: 50,139, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Miles Jenkins: 20,374, level confidence: 73%.