Saurav Ghosal v Zahed Mohamed (Sun 11 Nov 2018)
Match won by Saurav Ghosal. Result: 11-5,8-11,11-8,11-13,11-5.
Starting level for
Saurav Ghosal:
48,793, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for
Zahed Mohamed:
39,757, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Saurav Ghosal to win as he is currently playing
23% better than Zahed Mohamed.
Saurav Ghosal won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Saurav Ghosal played
13% better than Zahed Mohamed in this match.
As Saurav Ghosal has played below his allowed range at 46,278, his level reduction is 2.6% before damping. On the assumption that Saurav Ghosal would normally have been playing at level 48,133 (based on typical behaviour), Zahed Mohamed played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.3%.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Saurav Ghosal changes to -2.3% and Zahed Mohamed changes to +2.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Saurav Ghosal becomes -0.9% and for Zahed Mohamed becomes +1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Kolkata International' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Saurav Ghosal: 82%, Zahed Mohamed: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Saurav Ghosal: 78%, Zahed Mohamed: 83%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Saurav Ghosal:
48,306, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Zahed Mohamed:
40,287, level confidence: 83%.